Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise"

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A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise.

A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre-Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20t...

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Comment on "A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise".

Rahmstorf (Reports, 19 January 2007, p. 368) presented an approach for predicting sea-level rise based on a proposed linear relationship between global mean surface temperature and the rate of global mean sea-level change. We find no such linear relationship. Although we agree that there is considerable uncertainty in the prediction of future sea-level rise, this approach does not meaningfully ...

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Response to Comments on “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise”

The technical comments by Holgate et al. (1) and Schmith et al. (2) provide a welcome opportunity to present further analysis of the link between sea-level rise and global warming, and to make the computer code used in the analysis available for use by other researchers (see Supporting Online Material). Holgate et al. raise two issues. The first, shown in Fig. 1 in (1), concerns what they call ...

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A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future pr...

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Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise

Accurate monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide began 25 years ago. Since then, sufficient scientific evidence has been developed for two National Academy of Sciences review panels to conclude that sometime in the next century, atmospheric concentrations of C02 will almost certainly double and raise the atmosphere's mean surface temperature by at least 1.5C (2.7 F) and possibly as much as 4.5...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Science

سال: 2007

ISSN: 0036-8075,1095-9203

DOI: 10.1126/science.1143286